Religion has played a large role in this Council race. — Photo by Aaron Short

It all comes down to this.  Reyna!  Davila!  Rematch!  Tuesday!

That’s right.  Tomorrow is Election Day and Democratic nominee Diana Reyna, the incumbent councilmember, will face Working Families Party candidate Maritza Davila, who put up a strong challenge during the primary, falling by only 251 votes out of almost 10,000 cast.

Here at BushwickBK, we have been tracking the ebb and flow of this race for several months now, so it is only appropriate to offer a preview of five key areas that will lead one candidate to victory Tuesday night, assuming we don’t have another recount.

1) Will reliable Democratic voters click Row E on the Working Families Party Line?

One week after the Democratic primary, it became clear that Davila would not concede and was mulling how to continue the campaign.  She ultimately decided to run on the Working Families Party line, which includes Democrats Bill Thompson, Bill de Blasio, John Liu and Marty Markowitz.  However, in order to vote for Davila, you have to jump all the way over to Row E, while Reyna is listed under the Democratic Party at Row A and Mayor Bloomberg rests on lines B and C.  All of Davila’s mailers have suggested selecting Row E while Reyna has been reminding her constituents to “Vote Democrat” at rallies and in door-to-door outreach.  The WFP doesn’t have much sway in Bushwick and Williamsburg, where politically active (and overwhelmingly Democratic) voters tend to identify with long-established nonprofits such as Ridgewood Bushwick, Los Sures, Make The Road New York, and St. Nicholas NPC, and the placement is already confusing some potential voters.  However, if the message to Vote Row E gets heard, Davila will have a big day tomorrow.

2) Who takes the Catholic vote?

While you were sleeping off your Halloween hangover on Sunday, Diana Reyna, Maritza Davila, and Vito Lopez were shuttling among the Catholic parishes in the 34th District to meet parishioners at morning mass.  After the service, volunteers handed out flyers on the Church steps in a replay of the final weekend of the Democratic primary. This time, the Catholic vote is the center of their attention and the stakes have been raised.  In the past three days, Brooklyn-Queens Diocense Bishop Nicholas DiMarzio has been making robocalls on behalf of Assemblyman Vito Lopez (who backed Davila), even as questions about the Catholic Church’s IRS tax exempt status are beginning to arise. At the same time, Churches United for Fair Housing is distributing literature prominently featuring retired Monsignor John Powis, encouraging parishioners to vote on Tuesday, and Powis has recorded a message of his own to voters.  Oh, and did we mention Lopez visiting nuns at St. Barbara’s Church urging them to do more to support Davila; Transfiguration Church pastor Monsignor Tony Hernandez hosting Lopez, Davila, HPD and 400 Section 8 tenants in Williamsburg on Thursday over a financial dispute; and a report of witnesses seeing an East Williamsburg pastor hanging up Maritza Davila posters just before mass?  Yes, the Church is paying attention to this race. 

3) Will the NYCHA/Section 8 buildings turnout in large numbers?

If Maritza has a chance on Tuesday, she will have to clean up in public housing and senior centers throughout the district.  Davila counts her strongest support in Bushwick Hylan Houses and the Williamsburg Houses where she trounced Reyna in the primary, and is now courting votes in the Buff apartments, Section 8 buildings in Southside Williamsburg that are managed by Kraus Management. The only NYCHA buildings Reyna has done well are in Cooper Park Houses, where tenant association president Diane Jackson entreated primary voters with a bull horn, and Lindsay Park, which Reyna lost by a couple hundred votes despite spending all morning there.  As for Cooper Park, she’s spent a lot of time there too, helping fund childrens’ events in the park similar to the one they had in McCarren Park.  I am hearing that the Reyna campaign is hoping for 700 votes from Cooper.  Astute reader and former Community Board 4 official John Dereszewski crunched some numbers:

    "Not only did Reyna win Cooper Park by a whopping 237/104 margin, she did so while faring poorly in all of the district’s other public housing projects. (She was especially clobbered in Bushwick-Hylan houses. Reyna also ran poorly in Mitchell-Lama Lindsay Park and was crushed in Rheingold Gardens.) If Cooper Park had followed this lead, Reyna’s victory margin would has disappeared. But this did not occur. Clearly, whoever ran Reyna’s Cooper Park operation deserves a Gold Medal."

    4) What will happen in Italian Williamsburg?

    This is the area between Union Street and Bushwick Avenue, from, say, the BQE to Grand Street.  For decades, residents referred to their neighborhood as Greenpoint, and long-timers still hold firm about these boundaries, though newer residents call the area Williamsburg thanks to the popularity of the McCarren Pool concerts and other events on the other side of the highway.  Just over 1,000 voters, largely in this area, cast their ballots for Gerry Esposito who finished third in the primary.  Esposito has quietly supported Davila, introducing her to fifty local residents and Mount Carmel parishioners at Cono’s restaurant two weeks ago.  One week later, his property was vandalized, though Reyna staff members deny responsibility.  It is unclear how much sway Esposito will have, particularly over new voters, and looking at Dereszewski’s commentary again, Reyna’s past performance in this area could predict future results.  

    "In Italian Williamsburg, Reyna needed to maintain a healthy margin over Davila and not see it seriously eroded due to a strong Gerry Esposito vote. But many of the local voters opted to support Reyna – and oppose Vito – and consequently provided Reyna with a very healthy 470 to 117 margin over her principal rival. (Esposito did receive 351 votes in this area.)"

    5) Will the artists show up?

    Ahhh, the X factor.  There’s always one or two.  In this race, newly registered Obama voters, who may not have a party affiliation, will be casting their ballots for a second time in New York City.  Arts in Bushwick’s Laura Braslow argues that artists and arts professionals contributed to Reyna’s slim margin of victory in September’s primary, and Reyna is at least paying attention to these new constituents by attending events like the one at Tandem last week.  Still, it is an open question whether this demographic will come to the polls tomorrow and tilt the election toward Reyna, or whether her stances on illegal loft conversions such as 70 Wyckoff will steer them towards Davila, despite her ties with the Brooklyn machine.  Happy voting.

Related Posts